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SAC @ Weber, Saturday 10/11 @ 5PM, ESPN+

Kadeezy

Kadeezy

Active member
Here is the game preview and notes: https://hornetsports.com/news/2025/...-heads-to-weber-state-following-bye-week.aspx

Highlights....

  • LT Herman listed as an OR with Hays. I observed Tuesday morning's practice; I would expect to see Hays with the start.
  • Jamar Curtis is listed as an OR at one of the RB positions. I would take this a sign that JC is healing. But, I still say let him play four games and then bring him back next year as he has a RS to use still.
  • Derek Houston has a serious injury. Huge loss for the team the rest of the way. (n)
 
So, are you bringing a big crowd with you to Ogden? Hopefully there is no snow going over the pass. It's a little cooler here and may rain a little, but the snow will only be in the high mountains. Should be a great day for football, no matter who wins. It may be the last time we play for a while.
 
Kadeezy said:
Here is the game preview and notes: https://hornetsports.com/news/2025/...-heads-to-weber-state-following-bye-week.aspx

Highlights....

  • LT Herman listed as an OR with Hays. I observed Tuesday morning's practice; I would expect to see Hays with the start.
  • Jamar Curtis is listed as an OR at one of the RB positions. I would take this a sign that JC is healing. But, I still say let him play four games and then bring him back next year as he has a RS to use still.
  • Derek Houston has a serious injury. Huge loss for the team the rest of the way. (n)
Click to expand...

Game preview is wrong, last action in Ogden was 2022, not 2019. My wife and I were there for it, in my original hometown. Weather wise it was a miserable day but the good guys held on and pulled it out at the end!
 
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An evening road game at elevation against a program that is typically very physical in the trenches is a tough one. Didn't have time to dig into this week's game but it depends on which Hornet team shows up. The team that rolled Central Arkansas would beat Weebs, the team that crapped the bed against Cal Poly probably loses. It's going to be hard to have much optimism about this program the rest of the way.
 
I hope we are ready for the cold and the rain. That would seem to favor the team with the 15th best run game in the country. And the team with the most TFLs in FCS... Both SAC.
 
Not a great preview by ChatGPT here:

Quick summary / final call​


Prediction: Sacramento State 24, Weber State 17 — a low-to-mid scoring, physical game in wet conditions. I expect Sac State’s run game and back-seven pressure to control the line of scrimmage; Weber will stay competitive with a run-first attack and home-field energy, but turnovers and Sac State’s TFL/sack ability swing it the Hornets’ way. The State Hornet+2standard.net+2



Why I like Sac State (key factors)​


  • Rushing + front seven: Sac State is top of the FCS in sacks and among the national leaders in tackles-for-loss and is first in the Big Sky in rushing yards — that identity matters in bad weather. They will try to force a ground game and rely on negative plays/takeaways. The State Hornet
  • Weber QB situation: Weber State lost its starting QB (broken leg vs UC Davis) and is dealing with QB juggling; that raises the chance the Wildcats have less passing rhythm and rely more on the run. The State Hornet
  • Turnover risk for Sac State: Sac State has had multiple interceptions recently (Cardell Williams threw three in the Cal Poly game). If Sac State protects the ball they win the field-position battle; if not, Weber can capitalize. standard.net


Weather & game environment (impact)​


  • Forecast for Ogden that night calls for cool temps (highs mid-60s°F / lows low-40s°F), with a strong chance of rain and gusty winds — expect a wet field, heavier footing, and a game plan that favors rushing and conservative passing. That amplifies defense and special-teams importance. (weather sources summarized). The Weather Channel+1


Key injury / availability notes​


  • Weber State reportedly lost its starter late in their last game (broken leg); they’ll be using backups/rotating QBs. That matters for passing efficiency and red-zone execution. The State Hornet
  • Sacramento State had QB rotation and recent turnover problems (two QBs in the mix, turnovers in the Cal Poly game) but otherwise their run corps and D-line are relatively healthy per local previews. standard.net+1


How the game will play out (timeline)​


  1. First half: Slow, field-position chess. Wet conditions, early punts and conservative play-calling. Sac State leans on RBs; defense sets tempo with one or two TFLs.
  2. Second quarter: A turnover or special teams swing — could be decisive. If Sac State avoids giveaways, they take a slim lead into halftime (10–7).
  3. Second half: Weber answers with a long rushing drive, but Sac State’s pass rush forces a stalled drive or turnover. Final quarter becomes a grind; late Sac State rush TD plus a defensive stop seals it.


Projected box score — full team/player projections​


Game info: Stewart Stadium (Ogden, UT) — Homecoming (Weber); kickoff ~6:00 PM MT; attendance estimate ~16,000 (near capacity). standard.net


Notes on projections: I used current season leaders and recent game narratives (Sac State rushing strength, Weber QB injury, wet forecast). All rushing/receiving passing totals reflect a conservative game script in rain.
Click to expand...

Final score (projected)​


  • Sacramento State 24
    • TDs: 2 rushing, 1 passing, 1 FG
    • FGs: 2
    • Safeties: 0
  • Weber State 17
    • TDs: 1 rushing, 1 passing
    • FGs: 2


Box score (team & starters — offense)​


Sacramento State (projected stats)​


  • Total offense: 310 yards (rush 200 / pass 110)
    • Rushing (team): 200 yds (see RB splits below)
    • Passing (team): 110 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Turnovers: 1 INT returned for 0 (not a TD) — I project 1 giveaway.
  • Sacks (allowed): 2

Projected individual leaders — Sacramento State


  • QB — Cardell Williams (projected): 12/22, 110 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
    • (Conservative attempts because of rain + run game; turnover risk noted in previews.) standard.net
  • RB — Damian Henderson II: 16 carries, 75 rush yds, 1 rush TD; 2 targets, 8 rec yds
  • RB — Sam Adams II: 12 carries, 60 rush yds; 3 rec, 18 yds
  • RB — Rodney Hammond Jr: 6 carries, 25 rush yds; 1 catch, 8 yds
    • Combined rush: 75 + 60 + 25 = 160 rushing yards from the three (16+12+6 carries = 34 rushes). (Arithmetic: 75 + 60 = 135; 135 + 25 = 160.)
  • Top WR — Ernest Campbell: 5 rec, 65 yds
  • Kicker: 2/2 FGs (longest 42)

Defensive (Sac State):


  • Tackles — Derek Houston: 8 tackles
  • Sacks — Melvin Swindle II: 1.5 sacks (team total 3 sacks) The State Hornet
  • TFLs (team): 7


Weber State (projected stats)​


  • Total offense: 320 yards (rush 210 / pass 110)
    • Rushing (team): 210 yds (Weber leans on run; home, backup QB)
    • Passing (team): 110 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Turnovers: 1 fumble lost or INT

Projected individual leaders — Weber State


  • QB — Dijon Jennings (projected starter/backup): 16/28, 110 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT (efficient shorter passes; limited deep shots) The State Hornet
  • RB — Davion Godley: 18 carries, 95 rush yds, 1 rush TD; 2 rec, 12 yds
  • RB — Damon Bankston / secondary back: 12 carries, 65 rush yds
    • Combined rush: 95 + 65 = 160; I'll add short-yardage and QB scramble to reach team 210 (fill by committee + sacks lost yards considered).
  • Top WR — Jayleen Record: 4 rec, 50 yds
  • Kicker: 2/3 FGs

Defensive (Weber State):


  • Tackles — Mayson Hitchens: 9 tackles
  • Sacks (team): 2
  • TFLs (team): 5


Full projected box lines (concise table)​


Sacramento State — offense


  • Passing: Williams — 12/22, 110 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing: Henderson 16–75–1, Adams 12–60–0, Hammond 6–25–0, Team: 200 rush yds
  • Receiving: Campbell 5–65, WR2 3–30, WR3 2–15
  • K: 2/2 FGs, XP 3/3

Sacramento State — defense / ST


  • Sacks: Team 3 (Melvin Swindle II 1.5)
  • Tackles: Houston 8, others split
  • Turnovers: 1 forced (INT)

Weber State — offense


  • Passing: Jennings — 16/28, 110 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing: Godley 18–95–1, Bankston 12–65–0, QB scrambles 6–10
  • Receiving: Record 4–50, WR2 3–30
  • K: 2/3 FGs, XP 2/2

Weber State — defense / ST


  • Sacks: Team 2
  • Tackles: Hitchens 9
  • Turnovers: 1


Betting / game-management edges (what to watch)​


  • Turnover margin: biggest single-game swing. Sac State’s pass rush can create fumbles/strip opportunities; Sac State must protect the ball. The State Hornet
  • Weather halftime adjustments: if rain becomes heavy, expect pass attempts to drop significantly and scoring to become field-goal reliant. Weather forecasts show a high chance of showers that evening. The Weather Channel
  • Weber’s QBs & red-zone efficiency: if they must use a backup with limited reps, red-zone touchdown rate will dip and field-goals may result instead.
 
Kadeezy said:
I hope we are ready for the cold and the rain. That would seem to favor the team with the 15th best run game in the country. And the team with the most TFLs in FCS... Both SAC.
Click to expand...
Conventional logic would say that stormy weather would slow things down and favor a power run team. However, I have seen the exact opposite on many occasions. If you think about the individual matchups between recievers and DBs, The WRs are acting and the DBs are reacting. DBs have to react quickly and often slip in stormy weather. Unless it is driving rain, it may not have that much impact on the flight of the ball or the QB's ability to throw it. I would say that the weather is a net 0 in the outcome of the game. The altitude change may have a minimal impact on things, but the biggest impact is the travel and thus the home field advantage. I have no idea who has the better team, but I suspect that the better team will win this game.
 
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