Week 7 - #5 Sac State at Northern Colorado

[SDHornet]

Week 7 - #5 Sac State at Northern Colorado

The 5th ranked Hornets (4-1, 1-1 BSC) hit the road after the bye to face a Northern Colorado Bears (0-5, 0-2 BSC) team that is looking for its first win under Head Coach Ed Lamb. UNC is also coming into this game off of a bye. The Bears have had a rough first half of the season, but they have looked much better in their first 2 BSC games and are not far from coming into this game undefeated in conference play. UNC was tied at Idaho State midway through the 3rd quarter until things slipped away from them in a 21-35 loss. The following week against Weber State, the Bears dominated WSU for 50 minutes until a 4th quarter, 14 point implosion resulted in a 21-28 loss at home.

Offensively, UNC primarily runs from the shotgun with multiple tight end sets and are evenly split on pass-run play calls. UNC wants to establish the running game to set up the play action. The Bears mix in some tempo to keep opposing defenses on their heels. Quarterback Jacob Sirmon (97/157, 901 yds, 5 TD, 6 INT) has a good arm and vision and is quick to hit his check down target. Blake Haggerty (26 rec, 296 yds, 1 TD) is the leading receiver and had a big 75 yard catch and run against Idaho State. On the ground, David Afari (73 car, 376 yds, 2 TD, 6 rec, 38 yds) is a strong runner that is shifty in open space and Darius Stewart (44 car, 217 yds, 1 TD, 9 rec, 80 yds, 1 TD) is a north-south runner that is quick to the hole. Both running backs have shown to be more than capable of sustaining the running game behind an offensive line that does well on the running game but struggles to keep a clean pocket.

Offensive Team Stats

• Points scored per game: 16.2 (12th BSC / 100th FCS)

• Total Offense: 333.4 ypg (135.0 rushing ypg / 198.4 passing ypg) - 10th (9th / 8th) BSC

• Sacks Allowed: 10 (T-6th BSC)

• Turnovers: 6/2 (INT/Fum)

• Redzone: 9/11 - 8/1 (TD/FG) - 7th BSC

UNC’s defense lines up in a 4-2-5 and has had a lot of struggles this season in keeping opposing offenses out of the endzone. The Bears defense did have an impressive showing against a physical Weber State front in their last game, however they struggled to get pressure on the quarterback. UNC has good size on the interior of the defensive line but they have shown to be susceptible to the hard count. Strong safety Dustin Johnson (34 tkl, 1.5 TFL, 1 INT) is the leading tackler with linebackers Jordan Knapke (29 tkl, 1.5 TFL) and Tama Tuitele (29 tkl, 1.5 TFL) rounding out the top 3. The last couple of weeks, UNC has displayed solid open field tackling and the secondary makes plays on the ball.

Defensive Team Stats

• Points allowed per game:40.0 (11th BSC / T-116th FCS)

• Total Defense: 527.4 ypg (202.8 rushing ypg / 324.6 passing ypg) - 12th (10th / 12th) BSC

• Sacks : 4 (T-11th BSC)

• Turnovers Forced: 6/1 (INT/Fum)

• Redzone: 21/26 - 20/1 (TD/FG) - 5th BSC

The Bears special teams have not had many notable moments on the season thus far. Kicker/punter Hunter Green (1/3 FG, 8/9 PAT) has struggled with field goals and has a long of 31 yards this season. However he has shined during his punting duties (33 pnt, 42.2 ypp) as he has boomed 6 for over 50 yards and dropped 9 inside the 20.

Hornet Team Stats

• Points scored per game: 32.0 (4th BSC / 28th FCS)

• Points allowed per game: 23.8 (4th BSC / 34th FCS)

• Total Offense: 423.0 ypg (179.4 rushing ypg / 243.6 passing ypg) - 3rd (4th / 2nd) BSC

• Total Defense: 351.6 ypg (158.8 rushing ypg / 192.8 passing ypg) - 3rd (7th / 6th) BSC

• Turnovers: 4/1 (INT/Fum)

• Turnovers Forced: 5/2 (INT/Fum)

• Redzone Offense: 22/24 - 16/6 (TD/FG) - 2nd BSC

• Redzone Defense: 13/17 - 9/4 (TD/FG) - 3rd BSC

Position Advantage

• Quarterback: Hornets. Kaiden Bennett is the better playmaker compared to Jacob Sirmon. Sirmon has a better arm.

• Running Backs: Push. Assuming Marcus Fulcher is good to go, he is the most versatile running back on the field, however David Afari and Darius Stewart are a solid combo.

• Wide Receivers: Hornets. The Hornets have better playmakers that can stretch the field compared to UNC.

• Tight Ends: Hornets. Coleman Kuntz has emerged as the Hornets go to tight end, while Alec Pell got hurt at Idaho State and hasn’t played since.

• Offensive Line: Bears. UNC is coming off of a dominating game against a physical opponent, while the Hornet offensive line hasn’t had an impressive showing since Stanford.

• Defensive Line: Hornets. Slight edge to the Hornets here. Hornets are facing an offensive line that struggles to protect their quarterback, they should wreak havoc in this one. Comparatively the Bears front kept the power rushing game of Weber State in check their last time out. If UNC had a defensive end that was capable of getting pressure this unit would be notable.

• Linebackers: Hornets. Impressive performance against Weber State aside, Aarmon Bailey and Brock Mather have much better stat lines than Jordan Knapke and Tama Tuitele, especially on the blitz.

• Defensive Backs: Push. Both secondaries make plays on the ball and force turnovers.

• Punters: Bears. Hunter Green has had a lot more opportunities to shine this season.

• Kickers: Hornets. Zach Schriener has a much more impressive resume this season compared to Hunter Green.

• Kick Returners: Push. Neither team has done anything notable in the kick return game this season.

I wouldn’t read too much into the statistical differences between these two teams, UNC’s are skewed due to tough non-conference schedule. The Hornets have more talent across the board compared to UNC, however the UNC has shown improvement early on in conference play. Add to that, the Hornets traditionally struggle in Greely and I don’t think this will be the cakewalk most are hoping for. The Hornets haven’t won in Greely by more than one possession since the Garrett Safron-led Hornets in 2012 (5 games at UNC since then). With a big ESPN 2 showdown against Montana State in 2 weeks, the Hornets can’t afford to overlook this trip to Greely against this scrappy Bears team. I’m going with the Hornets using the bye to recalibrate and refocus on the task at hand and they take care of business in Greely for a win.

Stingers Up!

UNC at Idaho State Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-EXd0HjsE8&t=32s

Weber State at UNC Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6_w3iRHbRU

 

[Super Hornet 2.0]

Thank you as always for the hard work that goes into your pre-game analysis, SD.

Sounds to me like we'll want to run the ball a lot to take advantage of UNC's lack of LBers. That would be both up the middle with dives and isos to get them defending there, and then outside with toss sweeps, boots, waggles, and various options. When we can get the DBs crashing up to eliminate our runs, that will open up the passing game. I see some great numbers coming up for our backs AND receivers. While SD doesn't mention him specifically, I fully expect Jett Stanley to be wreaking havoc in the UNC backfield all game long. (That's not to say that other Hornet defenders won't do the same; it's just that he in particular impressed me during the Stanford playback on Pac-12 Network.)

 

[Kadeezy]

Game Notes: https://hornetsports.com/documents/2023/10/9/SacNotes101423.pdf

Looks like Lynch, Fulcher, and Martin are ready to roll. Guessing Pollard and Riley will RS or Med RS at this point?

UNC always scares me, especially on the road. With the bye to prepare and a competent coach now (Ed Lamb), they could be dangerous.

I'll say...

SAC 31
UNC 27

 

[HornetFootballFan]

With regards to our traditional performances in CO.
I believe the “high elevation” is a factor that is better than a 3pt home field advantage.

On another note: Our defense this season hasn’t been as good as in the past seasons. I’m wondering if Big Sky Teams have cracked our Defensive Play calling signs?

Watching TV I’ve seen HC AT on sidelines w hand signals. Hoping they have considered teams like IDAHO might have figured out our defensive calls? They and NAU burned us few big plays.

Anybody think this might be accurate?

 

[Green Cookie Monster]

I remember the game with UNC where we never threw a pass. It was a deluge. Always wondered if that was an NCAA record: a game with all rushing attempts.

 

[Green Cookie Monster]

With regards to our traditional performances in CO.
I believe the “high elevation” is a factor that is better than a 3pt home field advantage.

Didn't help the Rams last season. :nod:

 

[Green Laser]

With regards to our traditional performances in CO.
I believe the “high elevation” is a factor that is better than a 3pt home field advantage.

Didn't help the Rams last season. :nod:

Or the 2012 Colorado Buffs!

 

[SDHornet]

With regards to our traditional performances in CO.
I believe the “high elevation” is a factor that is better than a 3pt home field advantage.

On another note: Our defense this season hasn’t been as good as in the past seasons. I’m wondering if Big Sky Teams have cracked our Defensive Play calling signs?

Watching TV I’ve seen HC AT on sidelines w hand signals. Hoping they have considered teams like IDAHO might have figured out our defensive calls? They and NAU burned us few big plays.

Anybody think this might be accurate?

Hard to say. Traditionally, the BSC is all about offense, and as we have seen with EWU (and statistically our '22 season) a high powered/prolific offense can overcome a mediocre defense. Here are our total yards allowed and points allowed per game and BSC ranking over the past few years:

• 2017: 409.2 ypg (4th), 31.5 ppg (5th)  - Sam Lawanson DC

• 2018: 476.8 ypg (11th), 36.2 ppg (10th)

• 2019: 356.9 ypg (3rd), 22.5 ppg (3rd) - Andy Thompson DC

• 2021: 330.1 ypg (3rd), 19.1 ppg (3rd)

• 2022: 390.4 ypg (5th), 25.9 ppg (5th)

• 2023 (5 games): 351.6 ypg (4th), 23.8 ppg (4th)

Not taken into account is strength of schedule (I couldn't find a readily available historical list by season), that 2019 title run and the teams the Hornet defense had to deal with (3 game stretch of vs #22 EWU, @ #6 MSU, vs #5 UM) was without a doubt the most impressive stretch of defensive play in our D1/BSC history. The Hornets held those teams to 27, 21, and 22 points, respectively. It was at that moment that it should have been obvious to everyone that our time had arrived. That 2019 Hornet defense was the best team defense we ever had in my 20+ years of fandom.

2021 season was statistically better, but our schedule was significantly softer than the year prior. Only 2 ranked opponents, both severely overrated. UM has been overrated for the last 15 years and that Causeway win over the "10th ranked" opponent was an absolute beatdown.

2022 schedule was a slightly tougher than '21, but our offense was the best we'll probably ever see as Hornet fans. Literally record breaking across multiple metrics. We didn't need a good defense to win. And to the defenses credit, they made stops when needed every game until our only loss.

This year we are playing better up front, particularly in getting after the quarterback. We have still yet to get into "the meat" of our schedule, but our defense has shown it can rise to the occasion when needed (played up for Stanford, kept us in a game at Idaho that we had no business being in, made stops when needed against NAU), which is similar to how they played in '22...and that's all while trying to replace a 3rd round draft pick in the secondary. Hornet defense needs to defend the run better, but I trust Coach Thompson will throw some wrinkles into the defense to keep the "bend but don't break" style of play this unit has shown under his tenure.

I'm not worried about the defense, yeah there are some plays that shouldn't happen, but this unit knows how to rally and keep fighting and they are still making plays/stops in critical situations. My concerns are on the offensive side. Maybe it's because any hiccups and mistakes are exacerbated in comparison to last season's prolific offense, could be having some key players banged up, but I don't think we've seen the full potential of this offense. Regardless, no reason to doom about any of it, we'll be fine.

 

[HornetHope]

Well that was ugly.

Undisciplined in play so penalties we have typically not seen.

Defense still getting toasted on deep plays, almost every play now. Can’t seem to stop the run, getting pushed off the line regularly.
Offensively, KB not looking at field and not seeing wide open guys with regularity but trying th throw to covered guys and passes broken up.

This team needs to seriously look at themselves and figure what they need to do to get better.

 

[Kadeezy]

Gross Greeley game just like I thought it would be. Plus side, I didn’t see any major injuries, Marshel Martin back?, fulcher saved for another week.

SH/t gets real next week on national television. Time to get up…

 

[Super Hornet 2.0]

Thanks for the reminder about TV, Kadeezy. I just set my DVR.

I think we might get more viewership than usual since I expect the ESPN Prime game (UCLA at Stanford) to be a blowout. People might shift over.

 

[HornetFootballFan]

Offensive Coordinator Bobby Fresques I thought was going to be Troy Taylor light? He’s calling plays so conservatively and basic that we have list the explosiveness that made teams fear us.
He rarely stretches the field letting them stack near the line of scrimmage. If he continues play calls like this we are in trouble. I seriously thought he would keep with what built this program to being elite.
If you were a high level player recruit would you think this is a fun explosive team compared to previous seasons?
Have we done a single “onside kick” yet this season? Hopefully HC and Assoc HC can tell him time to “UP his Game!”
He’s getting me starting to think he’s still a QB coach and wasn’t ready yet to be elevated to OC? TBD
Sorry if I’m sounding unappreciative. I’m happy for W but we are making these games too close unnecessarily. Would be great to have cushion to get the 2nd string get experience. Rest Starters! Geeze

 

[SDHornet]

21-13 Hornet win. The Hornets didn’t score as many as us greedy fans would have liked to have seen, but they took care of business at every facet of the game and got a road win to move to 5-1 (2-1 BSC).

The offense had an efficient day. The only thing holding them back were the penalties that killed numerous drives and a bad fumble that gifted UNC a field goal. Kaiden Bennett (25/31, 183 yds, 3 TDS, 13 car, 15 yds) didn’t have an eye popping stat line, but his decision making and efficiency were probably the best all year. He did a great job of managing the game and taking what was there. KB still seems hesitant to hit the open check down/out route so there is still improvement to be made, but I don’t recall any throws that were forced into coverage today. Hats off to the offensive line. They finally showed up to a game since Stanford and got it done inside the tackles. Ezra Moleni (16 car, 93 yds, 2 rec, 0 yds, 1 TD) had a big day on the ground, and it looks like Marshel Martin (7 rec, 52 yds, 2 car, 14 yds) is finally back as he finally had a notable game this season. Carlos Hill (4 rec, 43 yds, 1 TD) had an acrobatic catch at the end of the 3rd quarter to seal the game.

On the other side of the ball, the defense kept a woeful UNC offense under wraps with the exception of one drive. Right out of the gate, the Hornets held UNC to a 3 and out and a field goal following an awful Hornet turnover. After that, UNC didn’t do much until they burned the Hornets deep on back to back shots down the field. But that was it. Some conservative play calling gave UNC plenty of room to move the ball late in the game, but once again this Hornet defense got a stop in crunch time and preserved the win. Cameron Broussard (12 tak) led the Hornets in tackling while Aarmon Bailey (8 tak) had a good game against the run. The Hornets managed 3 sacks on the game and the secondary made some good plays on the ball.

Special teams had a solid game. Every kick off reached the endzone, which I think is a first this season. Cal McGough (3 pnt, 41.7 ypp) and Connor Stutz (2 pnt, 44.5 up) did an excellent job in flipping the field every time he went out there as 3 of the 5 punts were downed inside the 20. The coverage teams also did an excellent job and didn’t give up any big returns to give UNC momentum.

Here are my takeaways from the game:

• Offensive play calling was very vanilla, but that is ok. A good offense doesn’t need anything flashy to beat a team like UNC, and that is what we got. Hate it all you want, but limiting what other teams see on film is better in the long run, especially for big matchups like what is on the docket next weekend.

• Since I won’t knock the vanilla play calling, I’ll knock the decision to leave points on the field at the end of the first half. Coming up short on 3rd down (low throw that didn’t allow any YAC) with under 30 seconds left in the half should've have seen a clock run down with a timeout for a final play (a field goal) to close the half. Instead the Hornets opted for a 4th and short play that didn’t get to the sticks (the play was there, KB was late on the throw which allowed the defender to make the stop). Even if the Hornets converted, there would have only been time for another couple of plays as the ball was near the 20. The Hornets need to take the points there as that would have made it 17-10 at the half. Assuming the Hornets make that field goal, this game would have been out of reach on Carlos Hill’s touchdown and us Hornet fans could have been spared some anxiety in the 4th quarter.

• Penalties need to be cleaned up. Too many drive killing penalties kept the Hornets from blowing this one wide open. Also saw a lot of late hits/piling on by UNC that wasn't called.

• Offensive line looked much improved with Aiden Meek back in the lineup. The Hornets gave up a couple of sacks but the run block was the best in nearly a month.

• The Hornet running backs are starting to really put it together, and that is with Fulch out of the lineup. In addition to Moleni, Zeke Burnet (6 car, 23 yds) is starting to show a lot of promise.

• Defensive front played the run well. The Hornets didn’t have a mobile quarterback to game plan for, but limiting UNC’s running game to only 75 yards is a step in the right direction.

• Pass rush was strong early in the game, but UNC seemed to have plenty of time to throw later in the game, maybe fatigue, or maybe…

• Defensive play calling was very conservative down the stretch. We didn’t seem to dial up as many blitzes when we knew UNC was going to have to air it out to climb back in it. It almost seemed like the Hornets went into a prevent defense in late game. That said, UNC was never in a position to win this game once the Hornets took a 1st quarter lead.

• Hornet secondary dropped about 3 interceptions. One was early in the game that would have negated the Hornet turnover and kept 3 points off the board. A few others seemed to just bounce out of the Hornets grasp. The Hornets will need to force turnovers (and cash them in on the other end) if they want to knock off the better BSC teams.

With the way the chips have fallen around the BSC this week, the Hornets are back in control of their own destiny as it pertains to a four-peat. The Hornets have a tall order in store as the dominant Montana State Bobcats come to town for an ESPN 2 show down. If you plan to attend, I recommend getting your tickets ASAP.

Stingers Up!

 

[SDHornet]

Offensive Coordinator Bobby Fresques I thought was going to be Troy Taylor light? He’s calling plays so conservatively and basic that we have list the explosiveness that made teams fear us.
He rarely stretches the field letting them stack near the line of scrimmage. If he continues play calls like this we are in trouble. I seriously thought he would keep with what built this program to being elite.
If you were a high level player recruit would you think this is a fun explosive team compared to previous seasons?
Have we done a single “onside kick” yet this season? Hopefully HC and Assoc HC can tell him time to “UP his Game!”
He’s getting me starting to think he’s still a QB coach and wasn’t ready yet to be elevated to OC? TBD
Sorry if I’m sounding unappreciative. I’m happy for W but we are making these games too close unnecessarily. Would be great to have cushion to get the 2nd string get experience. Rest Starters! Geeze

Awful and greedy take. As enjoyable as it is seeing the Hornets curb stomp the bottom echelon of the BSC, the reality is is that if this program keeps churning out wins then all is well. We're the top program in the BSC which means we are going to see everybody's best performance. Opponents have that game against the Hornets circled as it's their Super Bowl for the season.

Today's play calling was fine against an opponent like UNC. Teams like UNC are never going to beat us, we could only beat ourselves and even with our lack of execution at times, UNC was never in a position to win this game. There are some execution items that need to be ironed out, but the reality is the penalties kept this from being a 3+ possession game. I don't buy that this coaching staff lost it's intuitive and imaginative play calling because TT left (just go re-watch the Stanford game, that play calling was immaculate on both sides of the ball). I think Coach Fresques and Coach Thompson are playing chess while us greedy fans are playing checkers in hopes of seeing the Hornets hang a 50 spot on a woeful BSC team. These coaches have to keep some of their cards close to the vest so opponents can't game plan for the various wrinkles they plan to roll out in critical moments during the big matchups.

We're an elite program that is 5-1 with our lone loss coming on the road to a top 4 team in the FCS. This dooming mentality needs to end. This type of mentality stems from just not being able to get over the fact that TT is gone. Get over it already, he ain't coming back. He did a tremendous job while here and it was a hell of a ride, but to be honest, we don't need him back, we're doing just fine without him.

And if we do drop games to the top BSC teams, I'll still be a Coach Thompson, Coach Fresques, and Coach Richardson fanboi. I've seen enough Hornet ineptitude over the years to understand how good we have it, so stop dooming and enjoy the ride.

Calling out the coaching staff because they aren't doing any onside kicks is just...

 

[BSCfan1]

With the way the chips have fallen around the BSC this week, the Hornets are back in control of their own destiny as it pertains to a four-peat. The Hornets have a tall order in store as the dominant Montana State Bobcats come to town for an ESPN 2 show down. If you plan to attend, I recommend getting your tickets ASAP.

Stingers Up!

Got ours on 916 Day last month, my wife and I can't wait to get back down and see a game live!

Stingers Up!

 

[SDHornet]

With the way the chips have fallen around the BSC this week, the Hornets are back in control of their own destiny as it pertains to a four-peat. The Hornets have a tall order in store as the dominant Montana State Bobcats come to town for an ESPN 2 show down. If you plan to attend, I recommend getting your tickets ASAP.

Stingers Up!

Got ours on 916 Day last month, my wife and I can't wait to get back down and see a game live!

Stingers Up!

Hit me up if you need a place to tailgate at. Sounding like tri-tip is on the menu.

 

[HornetFootballFan]

Nice Post. Yes I truly appreciate the position that we are in. I am also a fan of our head coaches. My comments are only to OC Bobby F.
Hopefully he held back w play calling. The challenge is that if they don’t practice and execute on “more than vanilla” quality offensive plays.
When we do need to mix things up against a defense we will be very rusty in executing it properly. Hopefully they still practice these types of play and are holding them back from game play for BIg Sky Elite.
The end of Idaho game play hook / ladder didn’t look as if it had been practiced very often. Hope we can run the table! Both Montana schools look solid after seeing Griz finish Idaho vandals!
Go Hornets!

 

[Green Cookie Monster]

I dont think getting on the highway and keeping it in first gear the whole time and calling it out is doom. Instead of calling the same 8 plays ad nauseum, why dont they call 28 plays to spice it up and give some score padding so the 2-3 stringers get some playing time? If they are 'saving' their playbook and only showing 8, why not show them 28 and make opponents prepare for potentially 28 plays, instead of 8?

We should have hung 50 on both UNC and NAU, but by playing keep it close to the vest we were left with a Jody Sears type of game. Boring to the fans, a disservice to the players who are stuck behind the starters and adding too much drama to close out the game. To be elite, you gotta be elite and to be elite you gotta score points. Our D is not elite.

I watched the second half of the Stanford game, and I gotta admit watching Maestro TT do no wrong to pull out that W was sheer excitement. That is what drew 15,500 fans to Hornet stadium last year, not barely squeaking by 0-5 teams because TT was concerned some other team might steal the playbook. :nod:

Make the other team plan for everything.

 

[SDHornet]

Why call more than 8 plays if the opponent can't stop those 8 plays? There have been a lot of players seeing the field this season, especially on defense. On offense, lots of different running back, tight end, and wide receiver packages are used. Then there are guys getting thrown into the mix due to injuries. Plenty of players on this roster are getting run.

In 2021, Coach Taylor only beat a much weaker and a very poorly coached UNC team by 3 in Greeley. This coaching staff won by 8 yesterday against a UNC with a proven D1 head coach. I'm not really sure where your doomer argument is going here.

The Hornets are 35-9 (25-2 BSC) since 2019 with 3 BSC titles in a row. What's your definition of elite because those results are elite in my book.



Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGr5LO3n910

 

[HornetFootballFan]

Re running “The same 8 plays”… Gets boring, Easier to Identify and defend, less scoring.
Again.. I’m a huge fan of the coaching staff. I will stand by my opinion that I was encouraging him (Bobby F) to use more of the tools that he has at his disposal.
Let’s get this team rolling. Time to PEAK and get our 4th