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Week 10 - #7 Sac State at #4 Montana

SDHornet

SDHornet

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Week 10 - #7 Sac State at #4 Montana

The 7th ranked Hornets (6-2, 3-2 BSC) hit the road for yet another top 10 showdown, this time in Missoula with a top billing against the 4th ranked Montana Grizzlies (7-1, 4-1 BSC). The Griz are looking for their first BSC title under Head Coach Bobby Hauck’s 6th season of his second tenure.

UM has tallied a bunch of wins this season and after some early season struggles, the Griz have since gotten things in gear and have hit their stride. UM had a 14-28 week 4 loss at Northern Arizona to open up conference play but have since been flawless. UM followed up the NAU loss with a close 28-20 win at home against Idaho State, a quality 31-23 road win on the other side of the Causeway over a then 18th ranked team. The Griz’ most impressive win came on the road two weeks ago in a 23-21 win over a 3rd ranked Idaho. UM has proven that they can get it done in meaningful games this season.

The Montana run-pass option offense is led by dual threat quarterback Clifton McDowell (58/98, 762 yds, 6 TD, 83 car, 341 yds, 3 TD). Quarterback Sam Vidlak (56/89, 566 yds, 3 TD, 4 INT) has seen significant time as well, and Keali’i Ah Yat (9/13, 89 yds, 1 TD, 2 car, 12 yds) saw action last week, but McDowell has been the engine behind the offensive success in recent weeks. The Griz offense wants to run the ball, and they have done so about 63% of the time. In the backfield, Eli Gillman (108 car, 614 yds, 8 TD) and Nick Ostmo (67 car, 330 yds, 3 TD) are the workhorses with Gillman having the speed to break one to the house and Ostmo more of a short yardage power rusher. In the passing game, the Griz has a trio of quality receivers in Junior Bergen (31 rec, 467 yds, 3 TD), Keelan White (30 rec, 366 yds, 1 TD), and Aaron Fontes (22 rec, 295 yds, 4 TD) that are more than capable of making the plays when given the opportunity. Up front, the Griz offensive line is big and physical and very good on run blocking but has allowed the most sacks in the BSC. UM’s offensive goal is to get a lead and ground and pound their way to a win.

Offensive Team Stats
  • Points scored per game: 28.9 (6th BSC / 41st FCS)
  • Total Offense: 358.1 ypg (174.0 rushing ypg / 184.1 passing ypg) - 9th (5th / 9th) BSC
  • Sacks Allowed: 23 (12th BSC)
  • Turnovers: 5/4 (INT/Fum)
  • Redzone: 20/27 - 18/2 (TD/FG) - 9th BSC

The Griz run an aggressive 3-3-5 and have a stout front 6. The UM defense is the best in the BSC in scoring defense and defending the run but have struggled defending the pass even though they lead the BSC in interceptions. Linebacker Braxton Hill (67 tkl, 4 TFL, 2.5 sac, 2 INT) and strong safety Ryder Meyer (51 tkl, 1.5 TFL, 1 INT) lead the defense in tackling. Linebacker Riley Wilson (24 tkl, 8.5 TFL, 5.5 sac) leads the Griz defense in sacks and TFLs and cornerback Trevin Gradney (18 tkl, 4 INT) leads the defense in interceptions.

Defensive Team Stats
  • Points allowed per game: 16.9 (1st BSC / 8th FCS)
  • Total Defense: 324.4 ypg (75.8 rushing ypg / 248.6 passing ypg) - 3rd (1st / 9th) BSC
  • Sacks : 21 (2nd BSC)
  • Turnovers Forced: 13/5 (INT/Fum)
  • Redzone: 13/19 - 11/2 (TD/FG) - 1st BSC

The Griz kicking game has struggled this season and they have allowed 2 field goals to be blocked so far. Kicker Grant Glasgow (7/13 FG, 19/20 PAT) has struggled with accuracy with kicks over 40 yards, but he has connected on a 49 yard field goal this season. Punter Travis Benham (34 pnt, 41.2 ypp) has boomed a long of 60 yards with 12 punts dropping inside the 20. Junior Bergen is a dynamic returner in both the punts and kickoffs. Bergen is averaging almost 17 yards per punt return and 27 yards per kickoff return. He has taken a punt return to the house.

Hornet Team Stats
  • Points scored per game: 32.8 (3rd BSC / 21st FCS)
  • Points allowed per game: 23.8 (4th BSC / 41st FCS)
  • Total Offense: 433.8 ypg (189.6 rushing ypg / 244.1 passing ypg) - 2nd (3rd / 5th) BSC
  • Total Defense: 359.0 ypg (154.9 rushing ypg / 204.1 passing ypg) - 5th (6th / 5th) BSC
  • Sacks Allowed: 10 (T-3rd BSC)
  • Sacks: 18 (T-4th BSC)
  • Turnovers: 7/4 (INT/Fum)
  • Turnovers Forced: 10/3 (INT/Fum)
  • Redzone Offense: 35/38 - 27/8 (TD/FG) - 1st BSC
  • Redzone Defense: 20/26 - 14/6 (TD/FG) - 2nd BSC

Position Advantage

  • Quarterback: Hornets. The combination of Kaiden Bennett and Carson Conklin has performed better and has more potential than the combination of Clifton McDowell, Sam Vidlak and Keali’i Ah Yat.
  • Running Backs: Griz. The smash and dash combination of Eli Gillman and Nick Ostmo are better than Elijah Tau-Tolliver and Zeke Burnett.
  • Wide Receivers: Push. The top receivers on both teams have comparable numbers, both teams have players that can break plays. The Hornets have just had a more productive season due to the offensive schemes thus far.
  • Tight Ends: Hornets. Marshel Martin and Coleman Kuntz are more effective players in both the run and pass compared to Evan Shafer and Erik Barker who primarily have an impact on the running game.
  • Offensive Line: Hornets. The Griz line can really get rolling in the ground and pound game, but struggle too much in pass protection to get the nod here compared to a Hornet line that has been solid in both aspects of the offense.
  • Defensive Line: Griz. The Griz line is much more dominant and physical upfront compared to the Hornets. The biggest difference between these two is in run defense as the Hornets have had their struggles this season.
  • Linebackers: Griz. UM has multiple linebackers that torment opposing offenses. As a unit, they are tough to beat.
  • Defensive Backs: Push. The Hornet secondary plays the pass better than the Griz, but the Gtiz have tallied a few more interceptions on the year. The Griz secondary is much better in rush defense.
  • Punters: Hornets. Cal McGough gets the slight edge over Travis Benham. Both are solid punters.
  • Kickers: Hornets. Zach Schriener has been a more consistent kicker on the season compared to Grant Glasgow.
  • Kick Returners: Griz. Junior Bergen is the most electrifying return specialist in the BSC, if not all of FCS. The Hornets don’t have a returner that even compares.

My view is of course biased, but in my opinion the Hornets have better talent across the board compared to the Griz. With the emergence of Carson Conklin, the Griz defense will have to worry about passes over the top which plays to their vulnerability on that side of the ball. I don’t see the Hornets having much success on the ground, but they will still need to run the ball to keep the Griz defense honest. I’m anticipating a rotation between KB and Conklin depending on the situation to keep this Hornet offense moving, i.e. KB will have to be effective with his legs and make smart decisions with the ball on the RPO. The Hornets need to jump on the scoreboard early as a close game will tilt heavily in favor of the Griz as the game wears on.

The Hornet defense will have to find some run defense somewhere if they want to stay in this game. The Hornets haven’t done so this season against the prolific rushing attacks that they have faced…and yet this unit still finds a way to keep the games within reach. It sounds contradictory, but it's the bend but don't break style that this Hornet defense plays. No doubt Coach Thompson had this game circled on his calendar when he got the HC gig so he probably has some quirks dialed up for this one. As always, I think this gritty Hornet defense will find a way to make stops.

Special teams favor the Hornets in this one, if the coaches keep the ball away from Bergen. Since the Hornet kickers struggled to get touchbacks without wind at their backs, I would anticipate a heavy dose of squibs to keep the Griz return game under wraps. On punts, I wouldn’t even risk putting the ball in Bergen’s hands and I hope the Hornet coaching staff realizes this as well.

With all that said, this season the Hornets have yet to prove they are disciplined enough to avoid drive killing penalties and have continually made execution mistakes that result in costly turnovers. As we have seen against Idaho and Montana State, that type of sloppy play results in losses against the top teams in the BSC and the Griz have proven to be a top team in the BSC this season. Given the elements (40% chance of rain at kickoff) expected for a night game in Wa-Griz Stadium, it’s hard to see how the Hornets get those issues cleaned up in the most hostile environment in FCS. I have the Hornets losing a close game this weekend.

Stingers Up!

Idaho State at Montana Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6ARubPuFbg

Montana at the 3 Straight Causeway Losers Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8ihVFLrj6o

Montana at Idaho Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wh21tWIDO0
 
SD...I think your breakdown is extremely accurate and I can see why you made your prediction. But, the fact that many/most of the players on the Griz roster have never beaten Sac State could easily cause serious doubt if we jump on them early. Most our players are used to playing in much better weather conditions but the weather report for Saturday night is about as good as could be hoped for in November. Realistically it won't be any worse than playing at home later in the season. If our quarterbacks play effectively and we can stay away from penalties and mistakes that good football teams avoid in this part of the season I can see us hanging another loss on them. I actually believe we have the better team and the better coaches.
 
https://skylinesportsmt.com/montana-griz-press-conference-hauck-hill-bergen-on-sac-state/

Lol, Hauck is just the worst.... :roll:
 
Nice write ups… I believe we saw the “Rise of Conklin” into the starting line up. The INTS have really hurt KB. Naturally this just played itself out. I think we run Conklin & KB dual QB system and cause the Griz big problems.

The Center to QB snaps started looking like “another fix” for the week,

Hopefully adidas has awesome cold weather gear for the team! Hornets will Win 38-28 Griz.
 
Pretty interesting Hornet scouting report from the Griz forum.

https://egriz.com/grizboard/viewtopic.php?t=91977
 
Fulcher is listed as an “OR” starter on depth chart for this week. Bennett and Conklin or also an “OR” situation…
 
OldSchoolHornet said:
SD...I think your breakdown is extremely accurate and I can see why you made your prediction. But, the fact that many/most of the players on the Griz roster have never beaten Sac State could easily cause serious doubt if we jump on them early. Most our players are used to playing in much better weather conditions but the weather report for Saturday night is about as good as could be hoped for in November. Realistically it won't be any worse than playing at home later in the season. If our quarterbacks play effectively and we can stay away from penalties and mistakes that good football teams avoid in this part of the season I can see us hanging another loss on them. I actually believe we have the better team and the better coaches.
Click to expand...

I completely agree. I have no doubt we're the better team and have better coaches...we just haven't executed at the level needed to get it done against the top teams this season like in past seasons. I hope I'm proven wrong and this is the week everything clicks.
 
This is an excellent opportunity for the team to diminish the negative effects of the two prior conference losses. A win Saturday and a deep run into the playoffs is exactly what they need to prove they are an elite team. I'm positive that they understand implicitly the importance of this game and will respond appropriately. Not a doubt in my mind that you are hoping for the same.
 
OldSchoolHornet said:
SD...I think your breakdown is extremely accurate and I can see why you made your prediction. But, the fact that many/most of the players on the Griz roster have never beaten Sac State could easily cause serious doubt if we jump on them early. Most our players are used to playing in much better weather conditions but the weather report for Saturday night is about as good as could be hoped for in November. Realistically it won't be any worse than playing at home later in the season. If our quarterbacks play effectively and we can stay away from penalties and mistakes that good football teams avoid in this part of the season I can see us hanging another loss on them. I actually believe we have the better team and the better coaches.
Click to expand...

I agree OSH. I wondered the same thing about the current UM roster never beating the Hornets. I also think the blow out win against an upstart ISU team was a confidence booster. Knowing they can stop a top ranked passing offense will allow them to focus on stopping the run. It does not hurt that basically Hauck accused us of not playing a straight game last year. If I were on a team that had heard that I would want to prove yea we did it again. I think we get a heavy does of Conklin too.
 
Looks like we're back online - major StingersUp Podcast :https://sactownsports.com/category/podcast_player/?a=f61efdfc-9e7e-4f69-92aa-8cf2b0460fba&n=Stingers+Up+-+The+Sacramento+State+Football+Podcast+with+Jason+Ross&i=1593

-Fulcher still banged up.
-Moleni out for year.
-J. Ross had off air convo too with President Wood and it's the most encouraging news he's heard about Hornet Athletics
-The WELL will be new basketball facility with future expansion and improvements on the table.
-Per J. Ross, Dr. Wood understands the CFB Landscaped. The MWC was discussed and Dr. Wood plans to take the Hornets "to another level" with facilities.
 
I think this one will be relatively low scoring, WaGriz will be rocking, but our guys seem to thrive in that environment. It MIGHT be able to fire and focus up the team enough to pull of an upset, but the Griz D is for real, we'll have to spread them out and work quickly to have a shot. I think the Griz take this one 28-24.
 
Limit turnovers, no stupid penalties, creative play calling, I don’t see why Hornets can’t bag a W.
Watch Junior Bergen and don’t let him breakaway.
 
Going with the storm trooper look today. I dig it.

https://twitter.com/SacHornetsFB/status/1720230501846569085
 
Most of you seem to have a much higher opinion of their defense than I do. I don't believe they have superior personnel and their defensive scheme can most certainly be game-planned. If the Hornets don't get distracted by the environment I say we take the Griz to the wood shed...again.

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OldSchoolHornet said:
Most of you seem to have a much higher opinion of their defense than I do. I don't believe they have superior personnel and their defensive scheme can most certainly be game-planned. If the Hornets don't get distracted by the environment I say we take the Griz to the wood shed...again.

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Click to expand...

Their front 6 is formidable, as is their aggression/blitz. Their secondary is their vulnerability. The Griz offense is mediocre at best but they have some playmakers (Bergen, Fontes, Gillman). If the Hornets play to their potential and execute, this is a win...problem is we have yet to do that against the top BSC teams this year.
 
We played at Montana in 2014 and looking back at that game it didn’t feel like a 31–13 loss. Defense played well and only gave up 330 total yards. Untimely turnover and our potent offense that year had a hard time finding a rhythm. It was a weird cold 11AM start time but nonetheless that stadium was packed and rocking like it was prime time, it definitely can be a distraction. I’ve played or coached at nearly every stadium in the Big Sky and there’s nothing like Washington-Grizzly. Looks like tonight is going to be another cold game and rain on the forecast as well, fingers crossed that turns a few people away from the game.

Tonight looks like we will have to be running back by committee as we have all season and establish a push upfront on both sides to assert some control on the game early. I feel a big role from Martin tonight getting involved in play action if we’re having to go to the ground as much as I think we will and in the short to intermediate passing being a reliable target. Take care of the ball priority #1!
 
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