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The Bomb, College Sports Version

P

Pounder

Active member
https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/football/report-oklahoma-texas-potentially-headed-to-the-sec

This is how the P5 becomes the P4 and everyone else just gets a bit more relegated. Or something like that.

Not that A&M wants Texas in the SEC, but if something happens, it's because of nuclear TV money.
 
Strong bet on nuclear TV money.

Texas and Oklahoma are as good as gone. Need only look at tweets from officials at, say, Oklahoma State and the remaining big 12 schools to understand that they sound left behind.

The interesting rumor right now, in response to this, is USC/UCLA/Washington/Oregon/Colorado/Arizona to the B1G. Seems less likely, but who could the Pac-12 add to add value to the conference?
 
To summarize follow-up stuff:

Big 12 replaces Texas and Oklahoma with BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston. There are rumors of follow-up with Boise State and Memphis, but why not already?

The American, having earlier lost Connecticut and now losing three of their best markets, grabbed UAB, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, and Texas-San Antonio.

The rumors that popped up Friday involved the Sun Belt taking Marshall (who’s apparently certain to leave), Old Dominion, and Southern Mississippi from C-USA, as well as perennial FCS contender James Madison. If this happens, this leaves C-USA at 5 schools.

So the rumor upcoming is that C-USA is going after New Mexico State, Sam Houston State, and, um, Tarleton State (maybe along with some eastern candidates).

There were earlier rumors about Air Force and Colorado State ready to jump to the American, but that didn’t happen. What is becoming evident is that the Mountain West appears to be holding steady… therefore the Big Sky is stuck, too. That doesn’t mean Montana and Idaho fans won’t be howling about possibilities for a while, but if you look at the economic reasons for these things happening, there’s no chance. Not even for North Dakota State.
 
Pounder said:
To summarize follow-up stuff:

Big 12 replaces Texas and Oklahoma with BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston. There are rumors of follow-up with Boise State and Memphis, but why not already?

The American, having earlier lost Connecticut and now losing three of their best markets, grabbed UAB, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, and Texas-San Antonio.

The rumors that popped up Friday involved the Sun Belt taking Marshall (who’s apparently certain to leave), Old Dominion, and Southern Mississippi from C-USA, as well as perennial FCS contender James Madison. If this happens, this leaves C-USA at 5 schools.

So the rumor upcoming is that C-USA is going after New Mexico State, Sam Houston State, and, um, Tarleton State (maybe along with some eastern candidates).

There were earlier rumors about Air Force and Colorado State ready to jump to the American, but that didn’t happen. What is becoming evident is that the Mountain West appears to be holding steady… therefore the Big Sky is stuck, too. That doesn’t mean Montana and Idaho fans won’t be howling about possibilities for a while, but if you look at the economic reasons for these things happening, there’s no chance. Not even for North Dakota State.
Click to expand...

A significant number of the Idaho fan base will remain extremely unhappy until the school receives an offer from the PAC 12.
 
Alan said:
A significant number of the Idaho fan base will remain extremely unhappy until the school receives an offer from the PAC 12.
Click to expand...

They are way too practiced at extremely unhappy. They’ve got it down as art, science, and diplomacy.
 
Alan said:
Pounder said:
To summarize follow-up stuff:

Big 12 replaces Texas and Oklahoma with BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston. There are rumors of follow-up with Boise State and Memphis, but why not already?

The American, having earlier lost Connecticut and now losing three of their best markets, grabbed UAB, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, and Texas-San Antonio.

The rumors that popped up Friday involved the Sun Belt taking Marshall (who’s apparently certain to leave), Old Dominion, and Southern Mississippi from C-USA, as well as perennial FCS contender James Madison. If this happens, this leaves C-USA at 5 schools.

So the rumor upcoming is that C-USA is going after New Mexico State, Sam Houston State, and, um, Tarleton State (maybe along with some eastern candidates).

There were earlier rumors about Air Force and Colorado State ready to jump to the American, but that didn’t happen. What is becoming evident is that the Mountain West appears to be holding steady… therefore the Big Sky is stuck, too. That doesn’t mean Montana and Idaho fans won’t be howling about possibilities for a while, but if you look at the economic reasons for these things happening, there’s no chance. Not even for North Dakota State.
Click to expand...

A significant number of the Idaho fan base will remain extremely unhappy until the school receives an offer from the PAC 12.
Click to expand...

A significant number will remain unhappy until the athletic department is clearly better than Boise State. :lol:
 
https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status/1542559346453729281?s=21&t=Jv750etk-6AZa3fAOFoeHg&fbclid=IwAR3VSobsCYdQKdUlmhoN2QYblKuqsm2B86Pu7rwr2eE3tw6eY48CgevU13c
 
Pounder said:
https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status/1542559346453729281?s=21&t=Jv750etk-6AZa3fAOFoeHg&fbclid=IwAR3VSobsCYdQKdUlmhoN2QYblKuqsm2B86Pu7rwr2eE3tw6eY48CgevU13c
Click to expand...

Canzano reporting that the Big 10 is looking to create a "West Division" comprised of USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Oregon and Washington. Also, may include Utah and Colorado.
 
Note that, since Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington State are not AAU schools, they theoretically cannot join the Big 10.

I say “theoretically” because Nebraska dropped out of the AAU, but they’re still in the conference. It’s a thing.

What this looks like to me: imagine the B1G and SEC going to 20-24 schools. Instead of an FBS playoff, four division winners in each conference go to a playoff to determine the conference champion for each, and the winners meet in the “national championship,” maybe even at the Rose Bowl. Kind of exclusive, no?
 
Hearing now that the Arizona schools, as well as Utah and Colorado, would most likely go to the Big 12. Remember that BYU has already joined the Big 12 and is set to begin play in all sports in 2023.

That would leave Oregon State and Washington State to go...somewhere. :shock:
 
Any idea where the hell Cal and Stanford goes if the Big Ten or the Big 12 doesn't take them?
 
Wyokie said:
Any idea where the hell Cal and Stanford goes if the Big Ten or the Big 12 doesn't take them?
Click to expand...

I doubt they would have any trouble finding a conference. Stanford has a well known brand and also has alums all over the country. They also have a long established rival with Cal, so it could be take one, take the other. It would also give either the Big 10 or the Big 12 a strong presence in the Bay Area.

Beavs and Cougs, however...
 
There’s a report that reached Dan Patrick’s radio show saying San Diego State to the Pac will be announced this week.

This was already refuted by two sources. The gist of the refutation is that the Pac will not expand before the new media contract (or contracts) is finalized.

I’m sure there’s a leaker jumping the gun. Thing is, my guess is that either the streamers or ESPN, or both, might have agreed that SDSU would not dilute the value of the next contract. So barring the reversal of the UCLA decision via the U. California Board of Regents, it’s probably something that’s going to happen.

And damn, who would the Mountain West take to replace them? A thought: nobody realistic adds value, so they may not expand.

There’s a series of factors worth considering:
- The promised playoff expansion means there’s less incentive to build a third super conference. The Pac is all but guaranteed a spot most years, so that’s a factor keeping things together until the next B1G contract is negotiated.
- I mentioned streaming. Apple doubled Major League Soccer’s income with an exclusive streaming deal. Amazon is in the mix. My understanding is that an offer like that might be on the table, maybe at $40 million per school per year (what the B12 just signed is a bit lower than $32 million per school per year). The catch: that would probably be for exclusivity, and the Pac is probably not ready to go all in on streaming yet. The secondary rumor, updated today, gives the number at $28 million, which isn’t low enough (considering other expenses) for the Four Corner schools to jump to the B12.
- California public schools are still restricted from doing major business with Texas and perhaps a handful of other states. That hasn’t prevented one-off games, but currently there are no conferences in any division with both California public schools and Texas schools. It’s not a solid bet that this would be prevented if, say, SMU were invited to the Pac, but I can guess where the issue has traction.
- By the way, Mountain West schools get $4 million a year, in case you were wondering.

Could this affect the Big Sky? Shrug?

It certainly affects how Oregon operates.

Stay tuned.
 
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