This time of year we start to see a few teams give up on their seasons, and a few start to heat up, which makes picks always tough, not knowing who will come into the game with a passion and a desire to still play hard, or those that are just looking forward to the season winding down.

UNC @ CSUS – Sac St is 5-5 right now, and faces just UNC and ISU the rest of the season, while 7-5 won’t have them thinking post-season, it’s got to be a big boost for this team. Especially after beating EWU and then rival UCD. UNC is reeling with 4 losses in a row, and I see no reason why that trend won’t continue, Sac wins 24-16.

NAU @ EWU – Two teams that have to be disappointed with their overall season. EWU was supposed to have an incredible offense and play lights out, they’ve been streaky and have suffered painful losses to UM, PSU, & CSUS – at this point I would guess the team goal is to finish with a winning record, which would require wins against NAU this week and WSU next week. Last week in their win EWU gave up almost 350 passing yards to UNC, and a little more than 100 rushing – not a good sign as they’ll face a more talented NAU. Meanwhile the Lumberjacks are coming off from a loss to MSU, in a hard-fought game full of mistakes by both teams, the ‘jacks kissed any post-season hopes good bye with that loss. I’m not a fan of dome teams when they travel, looking at NAU, when playing outdoors, on the road they’re only scoring 17 points per game, meanwhile they’re allowing 28 points per game (2-2 in road games played outside). Another blow to NAU is their QB situation, once again Kresien was replaced with Herrick, and Herrick threw two ints, including the one that killed their last drive. I think EWU will come to play, where NAU wont, Eags win 31-17.

PSU @ MSU – PSU lost their game of the season last week, how will they respond? Also MSU has to be drooling over how crappy PSU’s D did against the rush last week. However MSU’s QB Desin will be starting his first game, and even though he had a nice deep pass to set up the game winning-FG against NAU, he only played 2 series, 1 of which was a kneel-down, so how will he preform over the course of a full game? Fortunately the cats have one of the better RBs and rushing games in the conference, so they won’t be relying on Desin. Meanwhile PSU needs to find a way to rebound, and they’re facing one of the better pass defenses in the conference this weekend. Last week was a hard-hitting game, and I think it look a lot out of the Vikings, now headed on the road, and with no chance of having a .500 or better season, I see PSU losing this game, cats win 20-13.

ISU @ UM – ISU is throwing a wrinkle at the Grizzlies, by starting a JC transfer QB, who did lead two late scoring drives against WSU last week. However ISU will be without their top WR threat, and is down a few guys on their D line and O line as well. Again, dome teams playing outdoors usually do not preform well, and I expect the same here. Meanwhile the Griz are playing well, but have 2 of their starting O-line players dinged up. Against a winless ISU team, I think Montana could start slow, coming off last week’s physical game, but they’ll heat up and win this one 48-17.

3/4 last week – I’ll take it! This week could be a big seperation week for some teams, once again a lot of important games for those that have post-season hopes!

UNC @ Weber – In the past, this would have the makings of a blow-out, however UNC is looking strong this year, after a string of heart-breaking losses UNC beat up on a hapless ISU, holding their offense to just 26 rushing yards and a little under 240 passing. UNC grabbed 4 interceptions and 1 fumble, wow! Meanwhile Weber is riding high and in the driver’s seat right now to win the conference after two huge victories in a row, beating UM and MSU. Can UNC’s defense containg Trevyn Smith? Or will Weber just keep firing away? I think that after two big emotional wins Weber’s going to slip up a little, but not enough to lose to a UNC team that has just 3 conference wins in 3 seasons with the Big Sky, Weber wins it 28-23.

NAU @ ISU – Unfortunately ISU will probably not get their first win of the season against an NAU team that looked much better over the last couple of weeks beating up on both Sac St (who was playing their 3rd string QB) and PSU. ISU statistically has a good passing offense (285 per game) but cannot run the ball at all. NAU’s rush defense allows 7 ypg on average, crazy! However their pass D is allowing near 300 yards per game. I think that ISU comes out firing, however they cannot keep up with a powerful NAU team, and the Lumberjacks pull away in the 2nd half, winning 38-20.

EWU @ MSU – Both teams in an absolute must win game. With 2 conference losses EWU is on the outside of getting a conference win, especially with a loss to Montana on the books. If they win out, they’ll only have 6 wins against D1 schools, so it would appear unless there’s a lot more parity across the FCS and in the conference EWU could be done. Meanwile MSU doesn’t want to slip into the same spot as EWU having two conference losses. The Bobcats last week gave up 349 passing to the front-runner for conference MVP – Cam Higgins. MSU’s offense has not been stellar this year, they netted 306 total against Weber, so Higgins out-gained the entire MSU offense in that game. EWU’s offense fell flat on it’s face last week. If EWU wants to win this game they have to play better offense, their WRs can’t shy away from hits and have to cut out the drops. MSU probably built their game-plan from watching the UM/EWU matchup, the Bobcats have one of the best RBs in the conference, and I expect they’ll use Crawford heavily. Another factor that could be in EWU’s favor is the weather – 60 degrees, sunny and little to no wind. In a game that the cats try to slow down, I say EWU find their stride passing once again and wins 31-21.

BTW – on yahoo sports here’s their “logo” for the cats, must be some sort of slip-up.
CSUS @ UM – Sac St comes in rested, with their main QB Jason Smith back at the helm, Smith has yet to throw an interception this year! Also returning is RB Bryan Hilliard, who had a good game against the Grizzlies last year with 83 yards on the ground. Sac has the leauge’s leading WR Tony Washington, who has a leauge-best 116.7 ypg which puts him 3rd in the nation as well. With a week off, Sac will be ready to go, aiming for their first win in Wa Griz I believe. Meanwhile the Grizzlies are looking much improved from their loss at Weber State with a strong victory against EWU. The Hornets passing attack will be potent, and the matchup of Washington vs TJ will be interesting to watch. With the Griz D playing mean right now, I say the Griz win this game, and allow some junk points for Sac in the end – Griz win 34-24.

A big weekend, some very deciding games this Saturday.

ISU @ UNC – UNC fans must be near-suicidal. They lose to Texas State when fumbling the go-ahead score into the endzone and lose the game, they lose to NAU when they attempt to tie the game on a 2 point conversion but NAU picks up a fumble and returns it for 2 of their own, and then last week they lose on a 38 yard Davis hail-mary. ISU fans are probably equally as down, a team that was injected with a lot of youth and JC transfers has not yet won game, despite having a pretty good passing game ISU’s defense has been unable to accomplish much. In this “battle for the bottom” one team will come out of this game with their first victory of the year. ISU’s average margin of loss is 17.2 points, UNC’s is 10.5, and if you take out their FBS opponents ISU margin is 10 points while UNC’s is 4 (rounding up). Both teams have good passing games and poor passing defenses, however I’m going to give UNC the nod here, because they’re the home team & playing outdoors in projected mid-50′s with rain weather. I never like dome teams in adverse weather situations, UNC 36 – ISU 32.

PSU @ NAU – Remember weeks back when NAU was squeaking out wins and egrizzers were laughing at Dave Coulson’s pick that they’d do well in the conference? Well, they technically sit on top the Big Sky with a 2-0 conf record and a 4-1 overall. Last weekend they slapped Sac in the face, holding CSUS to 21 yards on 41 rushing attempts (wow!). However that rush defense means absolutely nothing this weekend as pass-happy PSU comes to town. NAU’s pass D is averaging about 280 ypg (compare to Montana only allowing 233 ypg). Could PSU have found their stride? It’s tough to say with 5 turnovers committed by EWU and their pass D the worst in the Big Sky (maybe even all of FCS). This could turn into another shoot-out for both teams, right now I’m leaning towards NAU being at home, and with an experienced team, NAU 42 – PSU 38

Weber @ MSU – An intriguing matchup of two teams with no conference losses. Griz fans all know that Weber can kill you in the air and on the ground – meanwhile MSU’s offense has been putting up better points (372 ypg total – compared to their season avg of 333). That’s still not amazingly impressive, I do really like their ground game though MSU could be the only solid rushing team in the whole conference right now. MSU’s pass D is good, while the 350 ISU just hung on them is a bit of a concern – MSU had a lot of guys leave to injury in that game on ISU’s crappy field, most of those guys are going to be back this weekend. As Griz fans we argue that teams usually play flat after us, not always the case, however you can support that argument too – will Weber be flat? If so, they’ll lose in Bozeman. MSU has one big problem going into this game, just 1 guy on the DL that was a starter at the start of the season, and their captain on defense is out this weekend. I think Weber continues their hot-streak winning narrowly 32-28.

UM @ EWU – I’ve broken down EWU already, and I liked Montana’s chances until I head that EWU’s hottest WR who didn’t play against PSU is most likely back, Tony Davis is a stud, he returns punts and has shredded a lot of defenses out of the slot. If he does play (which all indications are he will) then I worry about the Montana secondary having to cover him, and Aaron Boyce, and home-run threat Brynsen Brown, and stud TE Nathan Overbay. Both EWU and UM are coming off losses, how will they respond to that? EWU’s pass D is awful and suddenly UM cannot seem to hang onto the ball. This game could have the making of a shootout, although I’d be willing to bet the Montana game plan is to run the ball and slow the game down. The only issue is, EWU’s strength on D is the run game, and right now it’s really unknown how our OL will play. It pains me to say this, but being on the road and for EWU’s biggest game of the year I’m thinking the Griz suffer another set-back, losing 51-40.

I’ll try to carry over my egriz posts more often here!

So, I took a quick peek at my picks on GGG’s site, 6/6! Alright! I actually didn’t think I got them all, but my scores weren’t that accurate, although I was hoping I’d be close with the Griz game, my prediction was 35-21, unfortunately when it was 35-24 CWU didn’t feel like cooperating with my point spread!

Looking ahead!

MSU @ ISU: This one is TOUGH to call. ISU battled like heck against EWU, however EWU’s defense is becoming increasingly suspect, giving up 312 passing yards to ISU. ISU really shot themselves in the foot though, with almost 150 penalty yards, only 81 yards rushing, and an int taken back for 6. MSU looked incredibly steady in their win, again I had them holding USD without a TD which was good until late. MSU’s D was pretty darn good, quite frankly I’m surprised USD scored 3 times even late. We have a matchup of ISU’s horrid defense (almost 500 ypg) but good passing offense (277 ypg passing) and MSU’s great defense (less than 300 ypg / 176 ypg passing allowed) and their not-so-great offense (327 ypg). MSU is 2-0 in their last two trips to Holt one game was close and low scoring, the other was a bit of a shoot-out. However, for some reason I’m thinking the ISU passing game will be just a little more crisp at home and eek out a win 28-24 ISU.

Sac @ NAU: NAU has really not lived up to their hype, intercepting a pass in the endzone to beat SUU and then last week – they intercepted a UNC 2-point conversion at the end of the game and took it the other way for 2 points. UNC scored late, went for the win but wound up throwing the pick that went the other way. Meanwhile Sac St welcomed back QB Jason Smith and RB Bryan Hilliard who both had big games against a porous PSU defense. Sac is surprisingly good on offense and very strong on rush defense (75 ypg). Meanwhile NAU only has allowed an average of 9 ypg rushing (last two games against SUU and UNC were netting negative yards). NAU’s offense is wicked good, over 475 ypg. Sac is better than UNC and SUU, I like their team now that they’re more healthy, and I think that NAU’s luck-streak is going to run out, Sac wins 31-20.

EWU @ PSU: Mwwahahaha, buh-bye PSU, right? Well… maybe. What’s happened to EWU’s defense? They’re giving up an AVERAGE of 371 ypg passing – that’s insane!!! Add in another 103.5 ypg in rushing, their defense is baaad right now. Meanwhile PSU is passing for almost 360 ypg. Granted PSU’s defense is equally as poor (allowing 482 ypg total, compared to EWU’s 474.5 ypg allowed). This game has the makings of an aerial shootout much like last year’s PSU/Weber game. EWU has one good advantage, they can run the ball, PSU doesn’t believe in running it. I like EWU with a more balanced attack in a game where there might be hardly any punts, Eags win 52-42.

UNC @ UC Davis: A head-scratcher for sure. The Bears are the heartbreak kids, they’re 0-3 but two of those losses came just as time expired. They actually have a decent looking passing game, however their defense seems awfully weak still (410 ypg allowed). UCD came out flat and beat up this last week in a loss to Northeastern – however Northeastern lost to Georgia Southern in overtime and to Syracuse by just 9. I think Davis rebounds at home, and passes all over UNC, winning 38 – 21.

UM @ Weber: Jury’s out – I can see this going either way. Looking at Weber, they flat out get it done on offense, passing for more than 300 ypg, and with a rock solid work-horse RB in Trevyn Smith. Their WR corps are these short little guys that just burn up the field. Their defense hasn’t shown anything incredible though, only 4 turnovers in 4 games. They allow over 350 ypg. Meanwhile the Griz love the nail-biters, if they go -4 in turnovers against Weber that game won’t only be a loss for the Griz, it’ll be a blowout. Montana’s rush D is darn good, the pass D… well, uh… it’s ok. That’s where they get beat deep, but keep in mind all of the WRs that have beat the Griz secondary have been big tall possession WRs. Does height make all the difference? No, but it matters. Our corners will have to keep up with these guys, I’m expecting a lot more of the 3-4 with the 3-saftey package out there. Also Weber gives up close to 135 rushing per game, if the Griz OL can cut down the penalties and open gaps, I see a big night for Chase. Game plan will be to keep Weber off the field, I say in a very tight and hard-hitting game the Griz escape once again 21-20.