Cal Poly finished second in the Big West last season, posting a 19-11 mark. They beat the Vikings in a BracketBuster game 92-87 last year in San Luis Obispo. This season, they have had trouble shooting, and as a result, trouble winning. So far this season, they are .500, and 2-4 on the road. The Mustangs are coming off an 85-51 loss to NAU on Sunday. In that game, they shot 32% to bring their season average to 38.5%. The Mustangs distribute the scoring very evenly with 7 players averaging 6 points per game, and none averaging more than 10. They are lead by sophomore Lorenzo Keeler, who only plays 19.6 minutes per game, but averages 9.6.

The Vikings are happy to return to the “friendly” confines at the Stott Center after the water damaged court left them without a home for the last two weeks. In the last week, the players went from a solid team that had won two road games in a row over teams it was supposed to beat to one that barely held on against a team they should have beaten by 40. Sunday night’s game against Washington State saw the team take some steps back in the right direction, especially on the part of D-Huff. He returned to the form of late last season, which could spell doom for opponents. He was already a complete player save for on the ball defense, but with a shooting touch he is next to unstoppable. Jeremiah Dominguez also showed some life after a terrible performance against the Pioneers. On the other hand, some players were nowhere to be found. Scott Morrison only had 5 points on three shots, leading many Viking fans to question Coach Bone’s play calling, and Morrison’s positioning. Sunday was his second opportunity against a bigger opponent, and both opportunities have shown Scott’s weakness. Both Kevin Love and Aron Baynes have been able to get inside and score, as well as keep Scotty away from the basket with their wide bodies, and he’s been unable to answer. The other major question is whether or not Justynn Hammond will be available for his first action as a Viking on Wednesday. He arrived as a recruit last fall, but was unable to qualify academically, so he’s been working the last year to do it.

Match-Ups
Center
CP: Titus Shelton PSU: Scott Morrison
Shelton scored a career-high 20 points in the game against the Vikings last year. He went on to become the Big West Conference Defensive Player of the Year, averaging 1.48 blocks per game. If he is to replicate that success against the Vikings, something will have to go wrong. If the team speed of the Mustangs or foul trouble forces them to go small, it could happen. Otherwise, Morrison should win this match-up. He should be strong enough to deal with Shelton down low, and has a 4 inch height advantage. Morrison has done well against smaller defenders this season, scoring in double figures in every mismatch contest except IUPUI. Shelton’s production has dwindled in the last two games, but he should get the nod here with his success last year, and his larger size.
Advantage: Vikings

Power Forward
CP: Matt Hanson PSU: Alex Tiefenthaler/Tyrell Mara
This is an interesting position choice for the coaching staff: Do they go with the bigger guy to save back-court depth against a guard-heavy team, or do they go with the guy who’s been starting all year? I think they go with Mara to start off because Tief didn’t play big minutes against Wazzu. However, if he doesn’t wear down, he may see a majority of the minutes, especially if Hammond is eligible. Hanson has been very inconsistent this year for the Mustangs. He began the season averaging double-figures, but hasn’t done much recently. His production on the boards has also seen a significant decline over the same time period. When he’s on, Hanson can be a difficult match-up because he has a good shooting touch outside, and soft hands inside. He is also a tough defender. I doubt we’ll se much point production from this position on Wednesday because neither team will have much of an advantage.
Advantage: Push

Guard/Forward
CP: Dawin Whiten PSU: Deonte Huff
After a solid beginning to his career at Poly, Whiten’s production is down significantly. Across the board, he’s worse at everything. 3 less points per game, 1 less rebound, and a 3 point percentage that’s gone down from 36 to 27%. He will need to find his touch from the outside, and make better passes if the Mustangs are going to have a chance in this one. What can be said about Deonte Huff? Eventually you knew he’d find his stroke. Unlike Lucas, he is able to get to the rim and free throw line, so he’s been scoring 10+ without jump shots. With the jump shot, he’s a very dangerous player. Look for the Vikings to try to run the high-low with Huff and Morrison and create some fluidity, because they should both have success on Wednesday.
Advantage: Vikings

Shooting Guard
CP: Chaz Thomas/Lorenzo Keeler PSU: Dupree Lucas
Though he probably won’t start, Keeler’s scoring ability warrants him mention as part of the starting lineup. Like Whiten, Thomas has seen a drop-off in the numbers as the team shooting percentage has gone down. He was a very important part of the offense in the first 5 games, and has been less utilized since. If he is ineffective, the Mustangs will go with Keeler who got stuck with the bagel on Sunday night on 0-6 shooting. The production here can only go up for them, so the Vikings better be prepared. Until Andre Murray’s ankle allows him to play, this is once again Dupree’s position. He was very good in Alaska, but dreadful after that until Sunday. With improved shot selection and patience he can be a very effective player, especially when others are shooting the ball well. I expect Lucas to have a good game after the success Huff and Dominguez enjoyed on Sunday. If eligible, Justynn Hammond will probably see some minutes here. Hopefully he can get a few looks at home.
Advantage: Mustangs

Point
CP: Trae Clark PSU: Jeremiah Dominguez
Clark is the one guy for Cal Poly who has really stepped up his game this year. He has taken on an increased scoring load while passing and rebounding better too. Like JD, he’s a small guy who likes to shoot the 3. Jeremiah is back after a bad game against Lewis & Clark. He should excel in a game like this because he likes to run and snap off quick passes.
Advantage: Push

Bench
The two guys who see a lot of minutes off the bench for the Mustangs are Keeler and Dreshawn Vance, a 6′7″ forward. In this game, they may also give wide-bodied center Zach Thurow some minutes. He has only seen action in two games, but as the only center on the roster, might warrant some time against the sizable Morrison. At 6′9″, 270 you have to wonder why he chose basketball over football after high school. For the Vikings, Julius Thomas will definitely see considerable minutes, as will Tiefenthaler. Depending on the need for shooting, Kyle Coston may also see extended time. With their newfound depth, the Vikings should have some really serviceable guys available at every position.
Advantage: PSU

The Mustangs are prone to turnovers and bad shooting. On the road, these problems should only be accentuated. Add this to the fact that they’re not a particularly good defensive team, and this should be a contest that favors the Vikings. The outcome will depend on how well the teams shoot, and whether or not Poly can defend Morrison inside. I think that they may do well at the 2 guard, but I don’t think this team is built to win on the road.

Prediction: PSU 78-66

The University of Northern Colorado broke several nasty streaks this week in notching their first ever Big Sky Conference win with a 16-13 victory over #19 Montana State at Nottingham Field in Greeley, CO. The Bears were on a 16 game loosing streak (the longest in school history) and an 8 game home loosing streak (the longest at Nottingham). This is the first home victory for second year head coach Scott Downing. With the win the Bears improve to 10-13-1 all time against MSU and 6-5 in Greeley. The game also marked the first successful field goal attempts of the season, with RS-Freshman kicker Zak Bigelow connecting on all three attempts from 25, 40, and 37 yards. The win did not come easily, as the Bears who lead for most of the second half, gave up a game tying touchdown with only 48 seconds remaining. However a 51 yard kickoff return by Cory Fauver followed by a 26 yard completion from Dominic Breazeale, to Ryan Chesla set up the final field goal with 8 seconds left on the clock.

NAU 44-43 PORTST
NCOL 14-26 IDST
CSUS 7-26 WEBER
EWU 23-24 UMT
SUU 3-7 MTST

Best Performance: (#1) Montana 24, Eastern Washington 23 - Griz eke out a hard-fought victory despite being outgained by 276 yards.

Worst Performance: Northern Colorado 14, Idaho State 26 - The Bears are now 0-4 against the Bengals since moving up in 2003.

Most Surprising Result: Northern Arizona 44, Portland State 43 - The ‘Jacks rebound from a bad loss partially thanks to two botched 2PC attempts by the Vikings in the 4th. quarter.

Posted on ChampionshipSubdivision.com by Mvemjsunpx

Here are my humble predictions for week 6 around the Big Sky:

UNC @ ISU- While I have yet to see the Bears in person, I have seen the Bengals, and they are close to being a good offensive team. Depending on who starts at QB (Butler suffered a concussion @ MSU), UNC may have a hard time stopping the pass. Barnett is proving once again he is on the top 3 backs in the Big Sky. UNC has given up a ton of points, and I would like to say their defense has improved, but the least amount of points they have allowed is 31, and that was their 31-0 loss at home to DII Chadron State. If Russell Hill starts, it won’t be as bad for the Bears, but if Butler is healthy, he is a young talented QB with his best days ahead of him.
UNC 17 ISU 35

NAU @ PSU - Lumberjacks, what happened? From what I understand, Kreissen was playing hurt and went out at halftime? What is his status? For this prediction, I will assume he will be a go at gametime. If he does start, this could be the highest scoring game of the year so far in the Big Sky. A classic Big Sky game, where defense is optional. PSU’s Brian White has been on fire lately, throwing for 1,529 yards and 6 TDs in just 5 games, although he does have 5 INTs in that span as well. They beat a very good EWU team last week, and White did it without star receiver Tremayne Kirkland. NAU on the other hand got smoked by an up and coming (maybe) Sac State squad. Did I hear that Skyler Moore was injured? Both teams have the offense, but who will step up on defense? I think NAU is a little banged up, and this game is in Portland where Glanville has drummed up decent support so far.
NAU 24 PSU 35

Sac @ Weber - Weber had a horrible OOC start to the year, but have played well, at least defensively, in conference so far. They did lose their best DLmen last week on a questionable block by UM’s Cody Balough, but they still have plenty of talent on that side of the ball. Teams often struggle with their man-to-man coverage, and will be a good test to see how good freshman QB Jason Smith really is. Whatever happened to Ryan Mole, or the JC transfer that went to the same JC as MSU’s Demetrius Crawford? On the other end, Weber’s offense has struggled mightily, despite having one of the best RB’s in the Big Sky in sophomore Trevyn Smith. Getting his second start at QB should be Cameron Higgins, a dual-threat freshman who may have emerged to the top of the muck that is the Weber QB situation. I’m still not a believer of the Hornets, and I think Weber wins in a low-scoring affair in Ogden, thanks to the play of their defense.
Sac 10 Weber 14

Southern Utah @ #13 Montana State - The T-Birds of Southern Utah have played the most brutal schedule in FCS football so far, and it doesn’t get any better this week as they head to Bozeman to play the 13th ranked Bobcats. SUU’s QB, Wes Marshall, is a good dual-threat QB in a pretty decent option offense, but rumor is he is a game time decision for Saturday. It would be a big blow to the T-Birds hopes of winning, who despite their 0-4 record are not a horrible team. But they are going to have to be above average Saturday against a Bobcat team playing with confidence and swagger. Demetrius Crawford has emerged as the league’s leading rusher, though he has yet to actually start a game (though he does get most of the carries), and is averaging an amazing 7.8 yards per carry. Jack Rolovich has made a few mistakes, but is always going to bounce back and make the big play. The Cats struggled early against a well-prepared ISU squad, but eventually found their rhythm, and settled down defensively, and soundly beat the Bengals 40-20 in Bozeman. The T-Birds were in the middle of their brutal schedule last week at #6 McNeese State, losing 41-20. The T-Birds may put up more points than Bobcat fans will like, and it may take some second half adjustments, but the Cats should beat the T-Birds by at least 2 TDs.
SUU 20 MSU 38

Game of the Week:

EWU @ #1 UM - Eastern was upset last week in Cheney to a PSU squad that is finally beginning to click in that spread offense. The Eagles have thrived on turnovers this year, but lost the turnover battle for the first time last week, and the score reflected that, but still retain the best turnover margin in the nation. The Griz actually have a negative turnover ratio for the first time in recent memory, but are playing very solid on both sides of the ball, despite their lackluster performance offensively against an underrated Weber defense. EWU sophomore QB Matt Nichols is having a stellar season, throwing for 1,129 yards, 11 TDs and just 2 INTs, good for a rating 162.6, good for 9th nationally. The ground game has also produced 8 TDs and over 700 yards of rushing offense through four games. In fact, the Eagles have the 5th ranked offense in the country. They will bring that potent offense into Washington-Grizzly stadium to face the 6th ranked defense in the country, and the #1 scoring defense nationally as well, only allowing 10.3 points per game. UM struggled with what many call their first “real” opponent of 2007, Weber, and look to improve offensively against a EWU defense ranked 97th in the country. Cole Berquist isn’t exactly lighting teams up, but he is playing mistake-free ball and scoring points, and he can do it on the ground as well. EWU always plays the Griz tough in Missoula, but I just can’t quite smell upset here. If EWU can get up early, it will force the Griz to play catch-up, something I don’t think they will be able to do. Whereas if UM gets up early, EWU has the passing offense to get back into it. But I’ll go with the Griz at home.
EWU 24 UM 30

Week 5 Scores
PORTST 28-21 EWU
NAU 9-38 CSUS
WEBER 10-18 UMT
IDST 20-40 MTST
NCOL 21-56 CPOLY

Best Performance: Sacramento St. 38, Northern Arizona 9 - The Hornets inexplicably dominate NAU.

Worst Performance: Northern Arizona 9, Sacramento St. 38 - Neither the Lumberjacks’ vaunted offense, nor their “vaunted” defense show up in Sacramento.

Most Surprising Result: Sacramento St. 38, Northern Arizona 9 - When was the last time the Hornets blew out any BSC team?

Posted on ChampionshipSubdivision.com by Mvemjsunpx

Only two Big Sky Conference Teams are left in the FCS Top 25 Rankings with Montana leading the pack and remaining at #1. Montana State at #13 is the only other school from the Big Sky Conference.

Three Big Sky Conference Schools are in the FCS Top 25 Rankings with Montana leading the pack at #1 for the first time in two years. Appalachian’s loss this past weekend dropped them to number 5 allowing Montana to take over at #1. Montana State at #18 and Eastern Washington at #21 finish up the Big Sky Schools.

First up, let’s do a quick rundown of scores from last week in the Big Sky:

Thursday, 8/30

#24 (FBS) Boise State 56, Weber State 0

- This one wasn’t even close. The Broncs were up 28-0 at the end of one, and 49-0 by half. It actually could have been worse had not Boise pulled its’ starters towards the end of the half. One positive for the Wildcats - they tied BSU’s backups, 7-7 in the second half.

Northern Arizona 47, Western New Mexico 0

- Alex Watson got his potential Walter Payton season off to a good start, catching 8 passes for 133 yards and 2 scores. Junior Lance Kriesen, replacing All-American Jason Murrieta, looked fine in his first start, going 16-26 for 188 yards and 2 TDs. The Jacks did have to settle for 4 FGs, however, and NAU did fumble the ball 4 times.

Friday, 8/31

Eastern Washington 52, Montana Western 13

- The Eagles struggled a little early on, but sophomore QB Matt Nichols would equal a school record 6 TD passes as EWU cruised past NAIA foe Montana Western. Dale Morris would add148 yards on the ground, and 2 receivers would catch a pair of TD passes.

Saturday, 9/1

#10 McNeese State 35, #13 Portland State 12

- Not a good start for the Glanville era. PSU was able to move the ball into the red zone 3 times in the first 20 minutes of the game, but came away with just 6 points. MSU would can 395 yards of total offense, with 204 of those on the ground.

#2 Montana 37, Southern Utah 17

- Lex Hilliard would look a little rusty, but would have a solid performance in his first return since injuring his achilles tendon a year ago. He would finish with 108 yards on 22 carries with one score. The Thunderbirds would hang around, keeping it within one score until partway through the third. But the Griz would put it away late in the 4th with a TD pass to Eric Allen.

#25 (FBS) Texas A&M 38, #21 Montana State

- The Bobcats would have no trouble moving the ball against their ranked FBS foe, even outgaining them in totals yards; 403 to 390. But the Cats were unable to score when in Aggie territory, moving the ball inside the 30 7 times and coming away with 1 TD, 1 fumble, 1 INT, and three missed FGs. Jack Rolovich would finish 21-39 for 267 yards and 1 score. The Cats were down just 17-7 at half, but the Aggies would pull away late in the third.

#23 (FBS) Hawaii 63, Northern Colorado 6

- In what many predicted would be the worst loss by a BSC team in week one, Hawaii QB Colt Brennan looked like Payton Manning against Butte High, completing 34 passes of his 40 attempts for 416 yards and 6 TDs in the first half alone.

News:

Portland State loses starting QB and FB for the season. Starting QB Tygue Howland will have surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left foot, and starting FB Bobby McLintock tore his right ACL. Brian White should step in for Howland, and Olaniyi Sobomehin will get the nod at FB.

It is a little late but it is here. Come on over to eGriz.com and make your picks. http://www.egriz.com/GrizBoard/fsports.php

The long awaited 2007 Pre-Season “FCS” top 25 poll from the Sports Network was released today.  Three Big Sky Conference teams made the top 25 and they are

Montana Girzzlies at #2 with 3 first place votes.
Portland State Vikings at #13
Montana State Bobcats at #21.

From the Sports Network 

Team (First-place votes) Record Points Previous Rank
1. Appalachian State Mountaineers (67) 14-1 1,771 1
2. Montana Grizzlies (3) 12-2 1,680 3
3. Massachusetts Minutemen 13-2 1,551 2
4. North Dakota State Bison 10-1 1,548 5
5. Youngstown State Penguins 11-3 1,417 4
6. New Hampshire Wildcats (1) 9-4 1,393 6
7. Illinois State Redbirds 9-4 1,227 8
8. James Madison Dukes 9-3 1,149 9
9. Northern Iowa Panthers 7-4 1,141 17
10. McNeese State Cowboys 7-5 1,059 21
11. Furman Paladins 8-4 1,058 12
12. Southern Illinois Salukis 9-4 935 7
13. Portland State Vikings 7-4 866 19
14. Wofford Terriers 7-4 810 23
15. Cal Poly Mustangs 7-4 719 16
16. Hampton Pirates 10-2 567 11
17. Eastern Illinois Panthers 8-5 546 15
18. Sam Houston State Bearkats 6-5 352 NR
19. Delaware Blue Hens 5-6 340 NR
20. South Dakota State Jackrabbits 7-4 336 22
21. Montana State Bobcats 8-5 332 10
22. Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks 9-3 300 13
23. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 9-3 272 14
24. Yale Bulldogs 8-2 166 25
25. South Carolina State Bulldogs 7-4 133 NR